I have just read the recent BudgIT report that ranked Abia State 4th most sustainable in Nigeria for 2025, a dramatic leap from 18th in 2023. One may ask these questions — “How did this happen so fast?” “Is this real?” “What does ‘sustainable’ even mean?”
Let’s break down the science of the ranking and the math behind the metrics in simple terms. What exactly was measured? (The recipe). BudgIT didn’t just look at “progress.” They used a specific formula called the Normalised Index Score (0-100%), based on 2024 financial data. Think of it as a financial health check-up measuring four vital signs.
Are they spending within their means? Is spending going to useful projects (CAPEX) or just salaries/overheads (OPEX)? How much can Abia generate internally (IGR) vs. waiting for federal handouts (FAAC)? Is Abia’s debt level manageable, or is it a crushing burden?
Abia scored 51% on this index. It is a pass, but more importantly, it shows a strong positive trend. Secondly, the core of the leap (a shift in spending priority) appears to be the most scientific and dramatic change. The data reveals a complete restructuring of the Abia State’s budget physiology.
Deductively from the report, under Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, the 2023 ranking (based on 2022 data), was heavily focused towards the recurrent expenditure (salaries, overheads). This is like a family spending almost all its income on food and bills, with little left to fix the leaking roof or invest in a business.
Capital expenditure (CAPEX) was historically low. In the 2022 budget, for instance, capital spending was a small fraction. This meant low physical development, which perpetuated poverty and low Internally generated revenue.
But under Gov. Otti, the 2025 ranking (based on 2024 data), was heavily focused on a seismic shift to capital expenditure. ₦215.5 billion was spent on CAPEX (projects, infrastructures).
This is called productive investment. It stimulates the economy, creates jobs, and lays the foundation for future growth. It is like the same family now spending a significant part of its income repairing the roof, buying a taxi to earn more, and sending a child to learn a skill.
In comparison, Abia’s CAPEX under Governor Otti (₦215.5bn) is likely multiple times higher than the annual average under the previous administration. For example, the entire 2022 budget for Governor Ikpeazu was ₦147bn, with CAPEX at only ₦9.8bn in the first half.
However, Governor Alex Otti has only spent 31 months, while Governor Okezie Ikpeazu had 96 months. So, is this comparison necessary/fair?
In answering this question, it is important to note that this ranking is not about total tenure, but annual fiscal performance.It measures a snapshot in time (the 2024 financial year).
It asks, “In this given year, how sustainably was Abia State managed?” The report shows that in the assessed year (2024), Governor Otti’s administration applied policies that scored highly on sustainability metrics.
The 96 vs. 31 months context is important for voter assessment, but for this annual financial health check, it is about the current year’s data.
Another important question is this: Abia still depends 87.37% on FAAC. Is that sustainable?
This is a critical point. High FAAC dependence is a weakness, not a strength. That is just the bitter truth whether we like it or not. The ranking acknowledges that but rewards improvement in other areas. So, the positive takeaway is that while dependence is still high, the ₦41.3bn IGR is a significant improvement from the past (e.g., ₦16.7bn in 2022).
The key is the direction of travel — the Abia State IGR is growing, and the huge CAPEX spending is an investment meant to create a richer local economy that will reduce FAAC dependence in the long run.
We have ₦221.9bn debt and we are ranked 22nd on debt sustainability. Is that good? As for me, moderate and controlled is the key.
Ranking 22nd means 14 states have worse debt problems. The sustainability test is, “can the state service its debt (pay interest) without collapsing?” With increased revenue (FAAC + growing IGR) and productive spending (which boosts future revenue), Abia’s current debt can be assessed as manageable. The danger zone is high debt + low revenue + wasteful spending— a profile Abia is moving away from.
It is also necessary to know what the “per capita” spends on Health (₦7.7k) and Education (₦15.5k) means. Per capita means per person. It is calculated by dividing the sector’s budget by the state’s population.
It is a scientific way to compare investment across states of different sizes. While these figures are still low compared to global standards, they indicate that human capital development is being prioritized as a pillar of long-term sustainability. An educated, healthy population is more productive.
In all of these, what changed scientifically is that the engine of Abia State’s economy has been recalibrated. The budget moved from primarily funding consumption (recurrent) to funding investment (capital). The high capital expenditure injects money into the local economy (contractors, workers, materials), creating a multiplier effect that can boost IGR.
Therefore, scoring well on fiscal responsibility suggests better budget adherence, less reckless borrowing, & transparency in reporting, all of which BudgIT tracks.
This ranking is not a grade for development completed. It is a grade for adopting the correct economic formula. It confirms that the current administration’s policy mix—aggressive infrastructure spending, focused social investment, and improved revenue collection—is the formula recognized by financial experts as the path to sustainable growth.
However, the challenge now is consistency. Can this fiscal discipline be maintained? Will the capital projects truly translate into broad-based economic growth and higher IGR? That is what future rankings will measure.
As for me, this BudgIT report is a positive directional indicator. It shows Abia is now operating on a more sustainable economic blueprint than it was before May 2023. And for the first time in a long time, the rest of Nigeria is looking at Abia, not with pity, but with respect. The future is being built, one responsible decision at a time.
#AbiaRising #SustainableEconomics #DataIsClear #BuildingForTomorrow
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